Michigan!

The counting is not done yet, but the results are nothing like what people were expecting (and close to my own back of the envelope calculations).

A few days ago, I was noticing that even as a poll predicted 17% lead for Hillary Clinton among Democrats in Michigan, it also predicted about 55% for Sanders against Republicans compared to about 50% for Clinton.  Recall that I deduced from that this indicated that Sanders had a sizable chunk of non-Democratic voters (about 10% of the Democratic total given that Michigan is roughly a 50-50 state with slight Democratic advantage) who could narrow the gap to under 10% at least (I did not do the numbers on this blog, but I did explain the logic).

As it happens, Sanders holds a steady if narrowing lead (after Detroit results came in) in Michigan and has an excellent chance to win.  This victory will have been delivered by his ability to mobilize the so-called Missing White Voters in an unexpected fashion.  This is something that people should pay closer attention to.

More analysis to come later, after I have a chance to look at the results more closely….

 

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