Why Democrats Should Worry about Clinton, Part X.

This polling result has been making rounds in the Twitterverse, about how much Sanders supporters don’t like Hillary Clinton much.

Looking under the hood, at least without having full raw data, reveals that the negativity towards Clinton is relatively small among partisan Democrats, but quite high among Independents.  What might surprise some is that the young voters are actually somewhat less likely to view Clinton negatively than the older–although the difference is quite small.  We also know that a chunk of Sanders supporters are not Democrats in their partisanship.

It is possible that Sanders draws VERY disproportionately among the Democrats who view Clinton negatively–in fact, it is quite likely.  However, it is also likely true that the many Independents that he draws are even more hostile to Clinton.  The Democrats who view Clinton negatively will probably vote for Clinton if she is the nominee–they are, after all, Democrats.  But will the Sanders supporters who dislike Clinton and are not Democrats stay in?  It seems improbable.  How many of them are there and whom do they favor if not Sanders?  For that, we will need the breakdown of the respondents’ favorability among the Republicans conditional on their dislike of Clinton and like of Sanders.  I have the hunch that support for Trump among them will be high.  But we need raw data for that….


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