Polling Trends and Electoral College

Two interesting tweets that need expansion on:

First, from Nate Silver:

As others have mentioned, there are echoes of Brexit here. Clinton’s narrowing lead over Trump a lot like Remain’s over Leave at this point.

This is rather meaningless, in terms of data, but an informed hunch.  Still, “informed” hunches are often more informative than data, in the right hands.  We run into situations that never happened before every now and then, and we know that the situation tomorrow will not be the same as that today–even if we only have data from today.

We can, however, reason beyond hunches:  Britain is far more homogeneous a country, in both ethnic and “cultural” terms.  There is far greater consensus about what Britain means to the English, at least (the Scots are a different matter), who, in turn, make up a far larger proportion of the population.  In the United States, this sort of consensus is not nearly so strong.

Then there is this from Steve Saideman:

@NateSilver538 how did the electoral college work out in the UK?

I think this is actually where Trump could gain an advantage, even if the numbers may not be in his favor.  Most minority voters are concentrated in not exactly competitive states–CA, TX, NY, etc.  The competitive states, mostly in the Midwest, are whiter than deep Blue or Red states.  Things could be interesting, with regards minorities, if NJ or TX were to become competitive–which may happen, more likely this year than others, but probably won’t.  Trump’s support among the working class whites pads his advantage in the states that matter more because of the electoral college, negating some of the disadvantage he incurs because of the differences in UK-US demographics.

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