Election Prediction, for What It is Worth.

For what it is worth, here’s my hunch on the election results.

For the popular vote, I don’t see virtually any chance that Clinton loses.  I expect that she’ll win by 2-4%.  No way in heck that Trump will actually get popular plurality, as far as I can tell.

For the electoral votes, it’s trickier:  even if Trump loses nationally, even by decent margins, he could win across the Midwest by very small margins, plus the same in Florida and North Carolina.  His margins will be smaller than the Republican norm across much of the rest of the South (especially Texas, Georgia, and Louisiana) but it will be improbable that he’d lose them.  So it is rather likely that Trump could win EV even if he loses by upwards of 2% or so.  It’d give this about 30% chance.

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